Brazil Takes the Lead in the Global Soybean Market: July 2025 Outlook

Dinko Tudor
Jul 25
2 min read

The global soybean market is undergoing a major transformation in mid-2025, with Brazil firmly establishing itself as the top exporter and producer. While the U.S. market struggles with price pressure, Brazil is experiencing record-breaking output, surging exports, and growing demand from China.

Here’s what you need to know.

Brazil: Record Harvests, Surging Exports

Brazil continues to dominate the global soybean landscape:

2024/25 soybean production is expected to hit a record 169 million metric tons (MMT), with expanded acreage playing a key role in the surge. Forecasts for 2025/26 are even more optimistic, reaching up to 179.9 MMT, according to UkrAgroConsult.
Exports to China are booming: In June 2025 alone, China imported 10.62 MMT of soybeans from Brazil—up 9.2% YoY, now accounting for 86.6% of China’s total soybean imports (Agriculture.com).
By the end of June, Brazil had already shipped 64.9 MMT, with projections of 11.2–13.1 MMT in July exports—well above the 9.6 MMT exported in July 2024 (Barchart).

Global Market: Oversupply Meets Low Prices

While Brazil thrives, the global soybean market is under pressure, especially in the United States:

Chicago soybean futures have fallen to inflation-adjusted 19-year lows, impacted by Brazil’s export competitiveness and strong global supply (Reuters).
U.S. production and acreage remain stable, but the lack of bullish momentum is dragging on prices. Producers are facing tighter margins amid ample global inventory.

Risk Factor: Russian Fertilizer Sanctions

One potential disruptor looms over the 2025/26 Brazilian planting season: sanctions on Russian fertilizer exports.

Brazil relies on Russia for over 30% of its fertilizers.
New U.S. sanctions on Russian suppliers could cause input shortages, increase planting costs, and impact future soybean yields.

According to Reuters, Latin American farms may face “chaos” if alternative supply routes aren’t secured quickly.

Market Implications & Takeaways

Factor	Impact
🇧🇷 Brazil’s record harvests	Ensures strong export capacity, especially to China
🇨🇳 Strong Chinese demand	Creates market floor for Brazilian soy
🇺🇸 U.S. price drop	Increases pressure on American farmers
🚫 Fertilizer sanctions	A wildcard that could affect 2025/26 Brazilian output

Conclusion

Brazil is now the undeniable powerhouse of the global soybean market, driven by yield growth, strong logistics, and favorable trade relations. As China continues to lean on Brazil for its soybean supply, and U.S. producers battle low prices, all eyes remain on fertilizer access and how it will shape the next crop cycle.

Whether you’re an exporter, importer, trader, or investor, understanding these dynamics is critical for strategic positioning in the global agri-commodities market.

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